It was a good week here at Fully Reconditioned’s West Coast Office. Last week’s picks came in at a hearty eleven wins and two losses, showing that maybe, just maybe, things in the NFL are starting to make sense, at least in betting terms. Chances are, this week’s success was a fluke and I’ll be back to alternating weeks slightly above .500 with weeks slightly below, but for the moment I’m going to ride the euphoric wave, popping collars and tossing off dollars, if you will. Will you?
I thought you might.
This week’s picks will be slightly abbreviated, as I am out of the office this week doing hoodrat stuff with my friends.
Milton, a native of Lataria.
(Note: All point spreads listed here are the lines at the time bets were made. Be sure to consult your very legitimate and legal sports book [cough] before making a bet of your own; lines move constantly due to the action on particular games. Also, gambling is illegal in many states. And watch out for those offshore betting sites, lest you end up like an online poker professional. Okay? Okay. Onward and upward.)
Week 6 Record: 11-2
My Record So Far: 47-40-2
Sunday Early Games (10/23 1PM ET)
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-3)
The analysts who set the betting lines in Las Vegas have found that a home field advantage in the NFL is worth three points. So, when you see a home team favored by three, it means the teams are seen as just about exactly even and it is expected that the betting public will hit both sides equally. Both of these teams are pretty terrible, so terrible that their identical 2-3 records almost seems too good. Since the Seahawks are playing on the road (even though they defeated the Giants in Jersey) I’ll go with the Browns and the points.
My Pick: Browns (-3)
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (-4)
The Falcons easily handled the Panthers to get back to .500 in Week 6. The Lions lost a hard-fought, emotional game to the similarly surprising 49ers which ended in the latest addition to the pantheon of lamest controversies in NFL history, “Handshake-Gate.” Hey, who might have thought that a couple of NFL coaches are kind of, in terms of normal human behavior, meat-headed turds? Anyway, the Lions will probably come out fired up by their Slayer-listening coach and bounce back with a win over the mediocre Falcons.
My Pick: Lions (-4)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)
I will continue my streak of successfully betting against the Texans with this game. Other than that, I have nothing else to say about this, a matchup that’s just boring, and not even bad enough to be interesting.
My Pick: Titans (-3)
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (-3)
Tim Tebow will get his first start of the year against the hapless Dolphins. Tebow just lost his best offensive weapon as the Broncos traded wideout Brandon Lloyd to the woeful Rams for a conditional pick and a crisp dollar bill for the vending machine. The Dolphins have basically admitted they are going to Suck for Luck so I’m going with the Broncos winning in a game that will make it seem like Tebow is the answer to all the Bronco’s offensive problems, until everyone remembers that they were playing the Dolphins.
My Pick: Broncos (+3)
San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (-1.5)
Do you think anyone’s ever had a Freudian slip and called NYC’s second football team the Jew York Nets? That wasn’t bad enough for you? Okay, I can do worse: what is a city in Southern California named after a frozen waffle dropped on the beach? Sandy Eggo.
My Pick: Chargers (+1.5)
Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) (neutral field in London)
The NFL continues its tradition of sending mediocre teams to play in front of a London audience once a year by packaging Jay Cutler’s Bears with Josh Freeman’s $1/ears. The Bucs beat the Saints in Week 6 after being trounced by the 49ers (in one of only two games I picked wrong last week) and the Bears wiped the field with the processes by which Minnesota is Viked. Either or both of these teams could finish in a Wild Card spot, or could go winless for the rest of the year, and neither would surprise me. In London, I say the Bears take it, by more than one point.
My Pick: Bears (-1)
Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
This will be the week Cam Newton both racks up a bunch of yards and wins a game. The Redskins, having had to bench Rex Grossmember, are back on the path to being just what we thought they were: a mess.
My Pick: Panthers (-2.5)
Sunday Late Games (10/23 4:05/4:15PM ET)
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-3)
The Chiefs remain terrible. The Raiders, even without quarterback Jason Campbell, should win this one at home by more than a field goal, even if they have to bring Rich Gannon back out of retirement to do so.
My Pick: Raiders (-3)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)
This rematch of the Super Bowl a few years back will have the same outcome, except without that whole Kurt Warner being awesome at quarterback and keeping the game close thing.
My Pick: Steelers (-3.5)
St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-11.5)
The Rams did finally obtain a decent wide receiver in Brandon Lloyd, who made the circus catch that set up Tim Tebow’s Hail Mary attempt at the end of the game after Tebow replaced Kyle Orton against Sandy Eggo. That’s the good news. The bad news? As of the time this was written, AJ Feeley would be the one throwing to him.
My Pick: Cowboys (-11.5)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+8)
The name Christian Ponder basically makes my bad pun, bad joke mind explode, so I’ll leave it alone, because I can’t spend the time to punder how many pons I could possibly come up with. Oh yeah, the Packers are gonna win by a lot.
My Pick: Packers (-8)
Sunday Night Game (10/23 8:25PM ET)
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-14)
Yet another Manning-free Colts game in the primetime spotlight. Maybe they should institute flex scheduling a little earlier in the season.
My Pick: Saints (-14)
Monday Night Football (10/24 8:35PM ET)
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)
When I think of the decades-long tradition of Monday Night Football, I don’t think of Dandy Don Meredith and Howard Cosell, or classic primetime matchups. I think of games that will probably be blacked out in their home city because their team is terrible and their fanbase simply doesn’t exist.
My Pick: Ravens (-7.5)
Thus ends another installment of NFL Picks. Clever ending phrase.